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Sep 03, 2023

NFL Draft: Ranking QBs taken in Rounds 1

So often, when it comes to evaluating top quarterback prospects, we focus

So often, when it comes to evaluating top quarterback prospects, we focus entirely on what a player is or can become, without accounting for the supporting cast that'll inevitably accelerate -- or debilitate -- his career. Football is a team sport, remember, and there's a reason most of the NFL's biggest QB investments simply don't pan out. Some QBs have a bigger hand in their undoing than others, of course, but more often than not, it's the situation that makes or breaks a newcomer's potential.

Consider, for example, today's elite veteran QBs. Some of them, like the Bengals' Joe Burrow, entered and transcended rebuilding organizations. But just as many, if not a good number more, arrived while their respective teams were in the midst of contention: the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes, Chargers' Justin Herbert and Bills' Josh Allen are but a few examples. The Packers are a current reminder of this reality, turning the page from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love: sometimes it's better to draft a QB too early rather than too late, if only to welcome the newcomer to a better setup.

So it's fine and dandy to bet bigger on the more talented prospects; we'd much rather have the Texans' C.J. Stroud, for example, than the Falcons' Desmond Ridder. Again, if the QB is gifted enough on his own, he's probably more likely to rise above his circumstances. But if we were assessing the top young QBs by situation -- specifically, which of the signal-callers drafted in the first three rounds since 2022 has the best setup moving forward -- this is how we might stack them up:

Year: 2023 | Team: Lions | Drafted: 3rd round, 68th overall

An increasingly popular first-round projection in the weeks leading up to the draft, Hooker could end up benefitting immensely from the fact he slid to Detroit on Day 2. Yes, Jared Goff is entrenched as the Lions' present-day starter, and theoretically he's primed to build on an underrated 2022 with more weaponry. But he's due $30+ million in each of the next two years, has shown physical limitations as an off-script passer, and if somehow the Lions don't maximize their opportunity this year, it's feasible Hooker's more athletic profile could be called upon. Either way, we're talking about a situation in which Hooker doesn't have to rush back from injury, and will be joining one of the NFL's most enticing up-and-comers. He can sit and learn from Goff while preparing for the chance to headline a lineup that now includes RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, TE Sam LaPorta and a rising defense -- all young, ascending pieces under Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson.

Year: 2023 | Team: Panthers | Drafted: 1st round, 1st overall |

Young's infectious poise could easily influence the rankings if you think about it too long, but let's not forget he's also joining a team that sniffed an NFC wild card in 2022. Sure, the South was in shambles, but the Panthers are not your typical dire-straits franchise picking No. 1 overall. They had to trade all the way up from No. 9, remember, and while their skill positions will require additional youth injections over the next year or three, they've got proven and/or ascending talent at every level on both sides of the ball, including tackles Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton, RB Miles Sanders, WRs Adam Thielen and rookie Jonathan Mingo, TE Hayden Hurst and a feisty "D" led by Brian Burns and Derrick Brown. It may be sturdy more than special at the top, but couple the roster with Frank Reich at head coach and Thomas Brown at offensive coordinator, with Andy Dalton thrown in as a tried-and-true No. 2 teacher, and you might talk yourself into another immediate wild card bid.

Year: 2022 | Team: Steelers | Drafted: 1st round, 20th overall

Don't look now, but the Steelers have positioned their first Day 1 QB pick since Ben Roethlisberger to prove in 2023 whether he's the next Big Ben. OK, so that's an exaggeration, but in all seriousness, Pittsburgh has quietly and gradually beefed up its entire offensive corps to the point that Pickett should have the Steelers in playoff contention as a first-time, full-time starter. Questions about coordinator Matt Canada and their general old-school philosophies notwithstanding, the Steelers have an improving line featuring new starters at LT (Broderick Jones) and LG (Isaac Seumalo), which should boost Najee Harris' rugged run game; and an underrated receiving corps of Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson and TE Pat Freiermuth. With an always-physical "D" also on his side under Mike Tomlin, Pickett has the goods to go from un-flashy but feisty rookie to legit fan favorite in Steel City, provided the trenches hold up.

Year: 2023 | Team: Colts | Drafted: 1st round, 4th overall

What better place for a supremely athletic but unpolished passer to land than Indianapolis, where new coach Shane Steichen is still relishing the MVP rise he oversaw from Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia? The Colts' once-vaunted line is iffier nowadays, but Richardson's sheer speed alleviates that a bit, and that's not considering the possibility of a big rebound from Pro Bowl blockers like Ryan Kelly and Quenton Nelson. Beyond that, you could do worse at the skill spots and on "D," where the Colts have traditionally thrived: Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. are legit as the RB1 and WR1, respectively, and rookie wideout Josh Downs should add some pop as well. There's also the fact that Richardson may not be asked to shoulder this club right away, with ex-Eagles backup Gardner Minshew in tow with lots of experience.

Year: 2022 | Team: Falcons | Drafted: 3rd round, 74th overall

Like the Steelers, the Falcons prize more of an old-school, ground-and-pound approach under coach Arthur Smith, which in theory bodes well for Ridder, taking some pressure off the youngster's arm. For crying out loud, Marcus Mariota was hardly asked to throw the ball in 2022 before his demotion. Certainly there's a lot of youthful upside in the lineup: RB Bijan Robinson projects as a three-down back, and WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts bring lots of size downfield. But this staff drastically lessened Pitts' role as a pass catcher for much of last year, and unlike, say, Pittsburgh, the drop-off after their top WR is more apparent, with backups like Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller primed for primary roles. The "D," meanwhile, is improved but still lacking at key spots like pass rusher and cornerback, potentially setting Ridder up to play from behind on the regular.

Year: 2023 | Team: Texans | Drafted: 1st round, 2nd overall

This is where we find the biggest discrepancy between prospect and situation. Houston is no longer barren, that's for sure: Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary make for a solid backfield tandem, Dalton Schultz should be a good safety valve at tight end, and new coach DeMeco Ryans figures to make the most of a rebuilding "D" headlined by rookie pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. But the two areas most important to a young QB -- protection up front and weapons out wide -- are nothing to write home about. Laremy Tunsil may be highly-paid at left tackle, but Houston's interior is suspect and none of their top WRs -- Robert Woods, Nico Collins, Noah Brown -- projects as a true No. 1. Stroud may well be a culture-setter for this club, but the fact he's built to thrive more as a traditional pocket passer means he could stand to have a much sturdier foundation.

Year: 2023 | Team: Titans | Drafted: 2nd round, 33rd overall

Was Tennessee wise to think about a Ryan Tannehill succession plan? Sure. Levis' upside as a dynamic, bruising dual threat is more enticing than the aging, expensive incumbent. But one of the reasons the Titans just spent a near-first-rounder on a QB one year after using a Day 2 pick on Malik Willis is because they lacked the structure to support Willis when he briefly replaced Tannehill, who went down in part because of the same structural issues. In other words: this team is a ways off! Selling Tannehill and star RB Derrick Henry outright may have helped reset the lineup, which offers little else offensively, save for the idea of WR Treylon Burks. Vrabel's defense will always be feisty, but Levis' never-say-die mentality doesn't necessarily scream "sustainable fit" for a unit whose best plan of attack would probably be: let Henry and Levis rumble until the wheels fall off.

Year: 2022 | Team: Titans | Drafted: 3rd round, 86th overall

Levis' arrival just one year after Willis joined the team as a third-rounder just about says it all: the latter's future in Tennessee is bleak. That's true in just about any scenario, actually. If the shifty but erratic Liberty product takes the field again, seemingly against the wishes of Vrabel and new general manager Ran Carthon, he'll do so behind an improved but still-iffy O-line and with hardly a single proven pass-catching target. And if he stays seated, that means Levis, Tannehill or someone else has successfully prevented him from becoming "the guy," and/or getting more live chances to grow as an NFL thrower.

Year: 2022 | Team: Panthers | Drafted: 3rd round, 94th overall

When Carolina drafted Corral, he seemed like a relatively safe bet to challenge Sam Darnold for the QB1 job. Months later, the team acquired Baker Mayfield via trade, confirming the Ole Miss prospect was just that -- a prospect. Now, having missed his entire rookie season due to injury, Corral is probably closer to being cut than even holding the No. 2 job in Carolina, with Andy Dalton arriving in free agency and Bryce Young arriving as face of the franchise atop this year's draft. While his setup would be nice if he actually took the field, there's just no feasible path to that happening.

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